Friday, May 21, 2010

Catcher's Era

I know catcher's ERA (CERA) has been much discredited in the sabermetric community, but the point of sabermetrics is to find out the truth, and not to be blinded by superstition. So instead of make an argument for or against, let's let the numbers speak for themselves by keeping the pitcher constant: Gio Gonzalez.

May 17 (Suzuki): 7 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K
May 12 (Powell): 4 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
May 7 (Donaldson): 7 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 7 K
May 1 (Donaldson): 6 2/3 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
April 25 (Fox): 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
April 20 (Suzuki): 4 1/3 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 5 BB, 5 K
April 15 (Suzuki): 4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
April 9 (Suzuki): 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Suzuki: 22 IP, 15 H, 12 R, 12 ER, 14 BB, 20 K
Others: 24 2/3 IP, 20 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 9 BB, 21 K

Comparative WHIP: -0.14
Comparative K/9 IP: +0.52

So less hits, more walks, and slightly more K's with Suzuki; more hits, less walks and slightly less strikeouts with others. I think those back to back starts tell you a lot. With Powell, 0 BB, but 9 H; with Suzuki, 4 BB, but only 4 H. But because of the walks, those 4 hits turned into 3 runs; whereas the previous start, those 9 hits turned into only 4 runs.

The bottom line? I think it's time to try Powell as the everyday catcher with Suzuki, their best overall hitter, in the DH spot. I think that's sort of a no-brainer. I mean, I dig getting that kind of offensive production out of the catcher--Lord knows what a sinkhole it's been offensively since Terry Steinbach left for Minnesota--but no more so than, say, putting Jake Fox or Eric Patterson in the lineup. I just think there has been an appreciable difference, and it's time to see if that difference is worth the cost.

Gio Gonzalez is not finishing his pitches when Kurt Suzuki catches him. That's just the bottom line. Now we could argue that it's really up to Gio Gonzalez to make due with what he has, but we both know that Gio Gonzalez isn't going to man up to anything anytime soon. Someone has to make him finish his pitches, and then means setting up inside all of the time. Landon Powell seemed to understand that about him; Suzuki seems sort of clueless about it.

Don't get me wrong. I like Suzuki a lot. And the club is probably right that even given there being a difference between the catchers behind the plate, there's simply nothing that can approximate having his offensive production in the catcher's spot in the lineup. But when you see something that compelling--0 BB from Gonzalez, a perfect game from Braden--you have to take a step back and wonder what would happen if you put Powell behind the plate every day and Suzuki in the DH spot (which, by the way, is itself an offensive sinkhole).

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