Clay Mortensen

Looking up Vin Mazzaro's Triple-A statistics, I found another statistic that's pretty impressive: Clay Mortensen is 7-2 in 11 starts this year. His WHIP is 1.43, and his K/9 IP is 6.39, versus 1.39 and 9.16 for Mazzaro, but seven wins in eleven starts really jumps out at you--it tops the Pacific Coast League.

Wins, of course, are reliant on offense and are a bad statistic for player evaluation, like ERA, but they do tell you something about a guy: he's getting outs when they matter the most. Vin Mazzaro still has some years to develop. Mortensen is in a do or die situation right now. Get to the bigs or stop playing ball. Then you say, well, there's no room for Mortensen, considering there's only a spot for Mazzaro because of two key injuries to the rotation. Well, when you have an embarrassment of riches in one area and a poverty in another, there's only one thing to do: trade it for things you need. I can think a number of teams that would pony up for Vin Mazzaro in exchange for a seasoned hitter.

The A's are 1 1/2 games out of first place, and slipping. Unless they find at least one impact guy for their lineup they're done for. And it's not fair really to have a guy who's eighth in your depth chart but could be a number four or five guy on a team like the Mets or Cubs. At a certain point, what is he playing for? Next year, he may slip to number 9 or 10, as another year brings up the next up and coming A's arms.

I can certainly agree to a certain extent that you can never have too much good pitching, but you do have to reward performance. If you're unable to, then you've got to give the guy a shot to go somewhere that wants him. And if you can't find somewhere that wants him, then you ought to trade guys until you have enough roster spots for there to be some mobility in the ranks. Otherwise, you're never going to get surprised by a guy--and surprise is a big part of this game. Some guys have all the ability in the world, but when they get under the bright lights and big crowds, their skills wither and die. Some guys have average stuff, but when they get on the big stage they bring the crowd to its feet.

Understanding the dynamics of how and why players who don't seem like they could succeed in the majors do is admirable, but until the day when it truly is a science, some things are just going to have to be left to chance.

 

Balls and Strikes, Pt. 2

Once again the strike zone danced, and once again Ben Sheets was the loser. Seventy-seven of Scott Kazmir's 115 pitches were called for strikes, while 59 of Sheets' 89 pitches were. More importantly, 16 of Fernando Rodney's 19 pitches were called for strikes--and Greg Maddux he was not.

I don't know what it is, but some home plate umpires have some chip on their shoulder about the A's, and it's a real drag when you see a pitch go across the shins, sail outside, and be called a strike. One could understand if it had been worked up to--pitchers often work the corners and try to throw to places they can get strike calls that are hard or impossible to hit. But it wasn't as if Angels' pitchers finessed the zone--they were just given random gift calls, as if the home plate umpire were trying to send a message to A's hitters, and that's just unacceptable.

Especially because if anyone finessed the zone and threw a ton of strikes, it was Ben Sheets. He was tremendous, but he just wasn't getting the borderline calls. And Kazmir didn't look like he intended to be in the zone from the get-go, and got every single borderline pitch called a strike. That pitch that Bobby Abreu drilled to right was the perfect example of a pitch Ben Sheets felt he needed to throw because 1) he didn't get the calls and 2) Kouzmanoff botched his throw. And that was the difference in the game right there.

Look, Ben Sheets will be the first guy to say that bar none, the pitch he threw to Bobby Abreu 2-0 was a mistake, and that anything that happened before that shouldn't have mattered. But the difference between a 1-1 and 2-0 count is huge. The difference between 2-1 and 1-2 is huge. Those differences made a huge impact on the game, and were made capriciously by the home plate umpire as if they were trivial. A team expects a level playing field, and a level playing field it was not. 

 

Remembering Greg Maddux

There's a reason that so many good pitchers are coming up now, and it has to do with the time in which they grew up. The nineties were prime time for nasty pitching, and there was nobody better in the nineties than Greg Maddux.

Throwing in an era in which 200 wins were rare, he won 355, despite the strike shortened seasons of 1994 and 1995, when he was in the prime of his career. People often describe him as a control pitcher--by which they usually mean that he relied on his reputation for throwing strikes to get guys out. But it was well deserved. He threw 3,000 strikeouts before giving up 1,000 career walks--one of handful of guys ever to do that.

The best compliment a ballplayer can get is being hated by opposing fans, and there are very few National League fans except those whom Maddux played for that do not hate Maddux with an unending passion. Maddux made one of the hardest things in the world to do look easy--throw strikes, get outs and win games. One knock on Maddux is that he has never been a National League MVP, NLCS MVP or World Series MVP. But I'd have taken Maddux anyday over some of the pitchers that did earn those titles, like Jose Rijo or Livan Hernandez.

Maddux typifies what has drawn so many young athletes--and people in all walks of life--to want to be major league pitchers--an almost zen like ability to, despite an average fastball, to make major league lineups look foolish. Babe Ruth--despite being a snub-nosed, cigar-chomping beefcake--inspired people to be home run hitters because no one has ever been able to hit the ball like he did. Greg Maddux inspired people to be pitchers.

Three perfect games were almost thrown within the space of a month this year. People are asking if its the post-steroid era or if it's the pitching--but it has to be both. Just coming into their own now are guys that grew up in the mid to late nineties, when Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, David Cone, Andy Petitte, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine were all pitching at the same time. These guys grew up believing that the coolest thing in the world to do was make a major league lineup look foolish, and no one made major league lineups look as foolish as Greg Maddux.

Of course, these things swing like a pendulum does, and it can't last forever. Only those guys that are coming into the prime of their careers in the next couple of years were shaped by the mid to late nineties. The steroid era cheapened the game, made it less pure. I'm not sure you can find a young kid today as shaped by a baseball player as any guy 23-30 was--and it was probably a pitcher. They want to be Lebron James now, just like when Lebron James was a child every guy wanted to be Jordan. That's what happens when guys make very difficult athletic feats look pedestrian.

Greg Maddux made one of the most difficult things in the world to do for a long period of time look so easy, it sometimes took only eighty pitches to do it.

This Rotation Can Get Hot

You might go long in the tooth waiting for the Oakland offense to click on all cylinders, but even the best performance of a V6 is not going to to be better than a V8. But the rotation can get hot. Real hot. Like one run or fewer in fifteen consecutive starts hot. The fact that it hasn't happened yet (and the fact that Brett Anderson and Justin Duchscherer are out) shouldn't fool you; this rotation is talented, deep, and, with the exception of Sheets (who is only 33) young.

Ben Sheets, Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez and Vin Mazzaro will start to tear through the league, as everyday position players start to feel the grind in their wrists, shoulders, legs, knees and ankles. So far, Ben Sheets has been a control pitcher with poor control. Trevor Cahill has been a sinkerballer whose pitches have remained up in the zone, Gio Gonzalez is a strikeout pitcher that can't put people away and Vin Mazzaro is a dominant starter who has been dominated. But all are making great strides.

Sheets looked great in his last start. For the first time he was around the zone in the entire game, and hitters looked off-balance. The only problem was that the strike zone was so ridiculously inconsistent that I can think of at least seven pitches that should have been called strikes that weren't and affected the outcome of the game considerably. Nonetheless, he threw sixty-six of his ninety-seven pitches for strikes.

Vin Mazzaro has looked shaky, but he, too, looked better in his last start in Boston--and earned a win. And he deserves a lot of credit for coming in at Arlington a couple weeks ago, giving up a hit and then a home run, but settling in and pitching five innings and not allowing much of anything else. Once he turns that corner, and starts to believe that he can duplicate at the major league level the dominance he has experienced probably since he was in little league, he'll be hard to catch--especially as hitters start to feel the broad, wide middle of the major league schedule.

Dallas Braden has been consistent. In the top ten in innings pitched, walks per nine and WHIP, the one thing he has not been the benefactor of since his perfect game is run support. He's given up some runs in his last few starts, to be sure, but he hasn't let one of those games get out of hand, and he's been playing through injuries, illnesses, and a giant target on his back. His last start against Minnesota, the only real mistake was getting torched by the best hitter in all of baseball.

Gio Gonzalez is the weakest link, and he's been excellent at times. His problem is getting the last out of an inning. So many times he gets a quick two outs and then can't seem to get the last one. The numbers don't lie, however. Statistically, your chances of scoring without a runner in scoring position with two outs is very small; statistical anomalies almost always work out in favor of the averages. The third out of an inning will come when Gio Gonzalez starts throwing to contact with two outs instead of trying to be too fine and walking the batter.

And this rotation is set, after the Angels, to face the Giants, Cubs, Cardinals, Reds, Pirates, Orioles and Indians--twenty-one games against teams (with the exception of the Pirates) that have trouble scoring runs. The one that doesn't can't pitch. Of course, there could be another injury to the rotation; Vin Mazzaro, Trevor Cahill or Gio Gonzalez could take a step back instead of forward. But when you look at the chances that those offenses are going to do much damage against this rotation, you definitely got to bet on the rotation.

As for the upcoming series against the Angels, well, a split would be a major moral victory; winning the series would be incredible; sweeping unthinkable. I wouldn't think of it as proving that you're better than the Angels, but managing to survive an Angels hot streak without getting buried in the division. If they can make it out of the series no more than two games out of first place--even if that team that's in first place is the Angels--then you've survived. A win tonight guarantees that after the series the Angels can be no more than 2 1/2 games ahead of the A's in the standings after the series.

But either way, this rotation can get hot. 

Three Outs

When I try to explain to foreigners what baseball is, I say that baseball is the struggle between the batter, the guy with the bat, and the pitcher, the guy throwing the ball. In the batter's mind, the hardest thing in the world to do is not make an out. In the pitcher's mind, the hardest thing in the world to do is to get one.

For Oakland relievers the last six games, the hardest thing in the world to do has been to record any out. For Michael Wuertz, it was especially improbable that he be the one to get those final three outs that won the ballgame. Struggling to get back in form after surgery, Wuertz has been unimpressive since coming back. Just when it seemed like the bag of Oakland relievers pitching tricks was empty, Wuertz pulled out a win.

Of course, that doesn't change much about the problems in the bullpen since entering Boston. They were lucky to win the last game in Fenway, and they were lucky to win the last game at home against the Twins. But then again, the fact that they got it means a whole hell of a lot. If the bullpen blew it on three consecutive nights, I don't think they would have recovered. The fact they didn't means they might start getting back into being the best bullpen in baseball. There's a reason that they win almost every game in which the offense scores four runs or more in: the bullpen has been nasty.

Not a moment too soon, as the Angels come into town tomorrow, and they're on a tear. They won't slow them down all in one go, but they certainly can't stop them if the bullpen can't stop anybody. Now at least when they go into the ninth tied or with a lead, they can at least say it's a fifty fifty shot.  

Walks and Strikeouts

The Oakland A's face a rotation this weekend with all five in the two twenty in fewest walks per 9 IP. Liriano has a high strikeout per 9 IP ratio, the others do not. The A's counter with Braden tonight, who gives up the fewest walks per nine of any pitcher in the majors (or did) and is fourth in WHIP, and Gio Gonzalez, who is in the top ten in strikeouts per 9 IP. Add to the mix the Oakland-Alameda Coliseum, and the likelihood of the four- and five-run innings like the A's experienced at Fenway recede into the distance.

The difference could be the virtual day off between the Red Sox and Twins series at home, because of the time difference, and the virtual ten-game homestand, because of the "road" series against the Giants a week from today. They don't play a game outside the Bay Area again until the fifteenth of June.

The Twins are on the back end of a West Coast swing, and a pitcher's park is just what their offense doesn't need. The pitching staff might be able to take advantage of struggling hitters on a tough road trip and pitch them like they did the Giants last month. Those games were all close, but the A's managed to scratch out just enough runs to win them, although an assist has to be given to a struggling Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina, who grounded out or struck out it seemed like in the ninth just when it looked like they might have something going. The Twins' have these guys Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

The A's won't win unless they keep people off the bases, especially via the base on balls, because the Twins aren't likely to give up much in that department. If you get on against the Twins, it's going to be by the bat, and the A's have proven that stringing together clean hits is asking a whole hell of a lot from them. While we hold our breath, let's just hope Braden, Gonzalez and Cahill don't let the game get out of reach.    

Your Oakland A's No. 2 Starter

Well, Anderson is down again, and this time it might be for the count. However, it gave the A's an opportunity to plug in Vin Mazzaro, who they wanted to plug into the rotation anyway, until and if they can get Josh Outman back in the mix this year. His line:

3 1/3 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

In Fenway, coming in in a spot start, that's actually pretty impressive. The thing with Mazzaro appears to be that he doesn't seem to have a strikeout pitch at the major league level, which is strange because he certainly had one at the minor league level. So long as he keeps his walks down, though, I can live with all the hits, so long as it doesn't make him change his approach such that he walks a whole bunch of batters to avoid contact.

You really look at a guy like Dallas Braden though, versus a guy like Vin Mazzaro. Braden pitched a couple of good games when he first came up and then got rocked pretty hard and was sent back down. He battled back and had a mediocre year, before having a breakout year this year. Mazzaro, on the other hand, has been a stud every place he's gone so far. He might not have the resilience Braden has shown, to be able to deal with not being given a fair shot. In terms of the Big Three of the early oughts, I think of Braden like Hudson, and Mazzaro like Zito.

Hudson could get rocked. But he was a guy that would give up a home run and then pitched five innings of shutout ball after that. Braden's the same way. He may get rocked, but you're not going to rock him, you're just going to make him more resolved to strike you out. Mazzaro, like Zito, is the opposite. You get to him and you shake his whole mental state. This was Mazzaro's best performance this year at the major league level, and he still took 82 pitches to get through 3 1/3 and gave up 9 hits. In the minors he had a nonexistent ERA with tons of strikeouts per nine and an above-average WHIP.

Mazzaro, like Zito, has the best stuff of any of the young starters. He should be taking the league by storm. But Mazzaro, like Zito, is never going to go out and take charge of a staff the way that Hudson did, and now Braden is. Look at Hudson and Zito now, after all. Hudson's busted through adversity and still manages to pitch effectively. Zito has cruised through his career injury-wise, and is still the biggest free agent bust of all time. Thus, Mazzaro is worth more as an idea than as a starter. Let's get value out of the idea before we find out he doesn't have much value as a starer.

Balls and Strikes

I know it sounds like being a sore loser when you say that a game was decided on balls and strikes, but if there ever was one, it happened last night in Boston for the A's. Ben Sheets threw a ton of first pitch strikes that were called balls, and they significantly altered the game in innumerable ways.

On the other hand, 84 of Daisuke's 109 pitches were called strikes, and Greg Maddux he was not. I can think of three pitches to Daric Barton and 2 pitches to Jack Cust that were obvious balls, but were called strikes that would have significantly altered the game. But the proof is in the pudding. 84 strikes is a significant achievement. For a comparison, in the two-hitter Justin Verlander threw last month, he only pitched 80 out of 116 for strikes, and that was a very dominant performance.

For 84 of Daisuke's 109 pitches to be called strikes, the umpires were saying that he was significantly more dominant than a pitcher that threw a two-hitter. That doesn't make much damn sense. 

Daisuke v. Sheets

Talk about two similar guys. Daisuke's been worse, but both are serious question-marks at the front of their respective rotations. Daisuke's given up 27 H and 21 BB in 34 1/3 IP--including an insane eight walks in his last start. Of course, Sheets has been known to walk a couple batters--he's given up 29 BB in 62 1/3 IP this year.

The difference, as with Dontrelle Willis, is whether you can make the pitcher pay. He was erratic, but the A's only managed three runs against him--so erratic that he was subsequently released. Now, the Boston offense looked to be in the same bind as the Oakland offense--actually worse--through five, but in walked the bullpen and undid those binds. The Boston bullpen did exactly the opposite.

This will be a battle of bullpens, and that gives the edge to the A's, most normally. Boston has a great bullpen, to be sure, but the A's have a better one. It didn't show up last night, but call it Fenway opening night jitters or something--it's not likely to happen again. Instead, it will be a race to which offense can make the most of early opportunities--and no doubt both starting pitchers will provide them.

Of course, we'll hear it seventeen more times tonight, that Ben Sheets is really turning things around, turning things around, but repeating it doesn't make it any truer. We laud him when he gets out of the seventh unscathed; this is a guy who regularly threw complete game shutouts. That was what made him the name pitcher we thought we were getting. Hell, of all of the pitchers I most admired in the league, Ben Sheets was the guy. And the Brew Crew, for much of his career, was not even half the offense this Oakland team is. 

Blevins and Ross

Ross got up to pitch the fifth; Blevins ended up pitching 2/3 in the seventh. His line: 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K. Considering how crowded the bullpen in getting, with Wuertz coming into his own, Ziegler maintaining his own, and Bailey not blowing his position, we're getting to a point at which on of these relievers is not like the other, insofar as one of them will not be with the Athletics at the end of the regular season. Which one will it be? Six-six Tyson Ross, or Jerry Blevins?

The smart money is on Tyson Ross. You can get a lot more trade value out of him. He's young and can still command another pitch: a slider, perhaps, or a curveball. But no GM in the league is going to be fooled. Tyson Ross and Jerry Blevins are two sides of the same coin. You pick one, and you excite the best of the other. You pick the other, you excite the best of the one. One of them is going to be a superstar. One of them is going to be a bust. Which is it going to be? One or the other. One or the other?

Into this equation, you enter age. But age doesn't help you win a championship this year. If anything, concentrating on age will lose you a championship this year. Jerry Blevins or Tyson Ross? Tyson Ross or Jerry Blevins? In the mix holds the entire hope of being a contender.