Clay Mortensen

Looking up Vin Mazzaro's Triple-A statistics, I found another statistic that's pretty impressive: Clay Mortensen is 7-2 in 11 starts this year. His WHIP is 1.43, and his K/9 IP is 6.39, versus 1.39 and 9.16 for Mazzaro, but seven wins in eleven starts really jumps out at you--it tops the Pacific Coast League.

Wins, of course, are reliant on offense and are a bad statistic for player evaluation, like ERA, but they do tell you something about a guy: he's getting outs when they matter the most. Vin Mazzaro still has some years to develop. Mortensen is in a do or die situation right now. Get to the bigs or stop playing ball. Then you say, well, there's no room for Mortensen, considering there's only a spot for Mazzaro because of two key injuries to the rotation. Well, when you have an embarrassment of riches in one area and a poverty in another, there's only one thing to do: trade it for things you need. I can think a number of teams that would pony up for Vin Mazzaro in exchange for a seasoned hitter.

The A's are 1 1/2 games out of first place, and slipping. Unless they find at least one impact guy for their lineup they're done for. And it's not fair really to have a guy who's eighth in your depth chart but could be a number four or five guy on a team like the Mets or Cubs. At a certain point, what is he playing for? Next year, he may slip to number 9 or 10, as another year brings up the next up and coming A's arms.

I can certainly agree to a certain extent that you can never have too much good pitching, but you do have to reward performance. If you're unable to, then you've got to give the guy a shot to go somewhere that wants him. And if you can't find somewhere that wants him, then you ought to trade guys until you have enough roster spots for there to be some mobility in the ranks. Otherwise, you're never going to get surprised by a guy--and surprise is a big part of this game. Some guys have all the ability in the world, but when they get under the bright lights and big crowds, their skills wither and die. Some guys have average stuff, but when they get on the big stage they bring the crowd to its feet.

Understanding the dynamics of how and why players who don't seem like they could succeed in the majors do is admirable, but until the day when it truly is a science, some things are just going to have to be left to chance.

 

Balls and Strikes, Pt. 2

Once again the strike zone danced, and once again Ben Sheets was the loser. Seventy-seven of Scott Kazmir's 115 pitches were called for strikes, while 59 of Sheets' 89 pitches were. More importantly, 16 of Fernando Rodney's 19 pitches were called for strikes--and Greg Maddux he was not.

I don't know what it is, but some home plate umpires have some chip on their shoulder about the A's, and it's a real drag when you see a pitch go across the shins, sail outside, and be called a strike. One could understand if it had been worked up to--pitchers often work the corners and try to throw to places they can get strike calls that are hard or impossible to hit. But it wasn't as if Angels' pitchers finessed the zone--they were just given random gift calls, as if the home plate umpire were trying to send a message to A's hitters, and that's just unacceptable.

Especially because if anyone finessed the zone and threw a ton of strikes, it was Ben Sheets. He was tremendous, but he just wasn't getting the borderline calls. And Kazmir didn't look like he intended to be in the zone from the get-go, and got every single borderline pitch called a strike. That pitch that Bobby Abreu drilled to right was the perfect example of a pitch Ben Sheets felt he needed to throw because 1) he didn't get the calls and 2) Kouzmanoff botched his throw. And that was the difference in the game right there.

Look, Ben Sheets will be the first guy to say that bar none, the pitch he threw to Bobby Abreu 2-0 was a mistake, and that anything that happened before that shouldn't have mattered. But the difference between a 1-1 and 2-0 count is huge. The difference between 2-1 and 1-2 is huge. Those differences made a huge impact on the game, and were made capriciously by the home plate umpire as if they were trivial. A team expects a level playing field, and a level playing field it was not. 

 

Remembering Greg Maddux

There's a reason that so many good pitchers are coming up now, and it has to do with the time in which they grew up. The nineties were prime time for nasty pitching, and there was nobody better in the nineties than Greg Maddux.

Throwing in an era in which 200 wins were rare, he won 355, despite the strike shortened seasons of 1994 and 1995, when he was in the prime of his career. People often describe him as a control pitcher--by which they usually mean that he relied on his reputation for throwing strikes to get guys out. But it was well deserved. He threw 3,000 strikeouts before giving up 1,000 career walks--one of handful of guys ever to do that.

The best compliment a ballplayer can get is being hated by opposing fans, and there are very few National League fans except those whom Maddux played for that do not hate Maddux with an unending passion. Maddux made one of the hardest things in the world to do look easy--throw strikes, get outs and win games. One knock on Maddux is that he has never been a National League MVP, NLCS MVP or World Series MVP. But I'd have taken Maddux anyday over some of the pitchers that did earn those titles, like Jose Rijo or Livan Hernandez.

Maddux typifies what has drawn so many young athletes--and people in all walks of life--to want to be major league pitchers--an almost zen like ability to, despite an average fastball, to make major league lineups look foolish. Babe Ruth--despite being a snub-nosed, cigar-chomping beefcake--inspired people to be home run hitters because no one has ever been able to hit the ball like he did. Greg Maddux inspired people to be pitchers.

Three perfect games were almost thrown within the space of a month this year. People are asking if its the post-steroid era or if it's the pitching--but it has to be both. Just coming into their own now are guys that grew up in the mid to late nineties, when Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, David Cone, Andy Petitte, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine were all pitching at the same time. These guys grew up believing that the coolest thing in the world to do was make a major league lineup look foolish, and no one made major league lineups look as foolish as Greg Maddux.

Of course, these things swing like a pendulum does, and it can't last forever. Only those guys that are coming into the prime of their careers in the next couple of years were shaped by the mid to late nineties. The steroid era cheapened the game, made it less pure. I'm not sure you can find a young kid today as shaped by a baseball player as any guy 23-30 was--and it was probably a pitcher. They want to be Lebron James now, just like when Lebron James was a child every guy wanted to be Jordan. That's what happens when guys make very difficult athletic feats look pedestrian.

Greg Maddux made one of the most difficult things in the world to do for a long period of time look so easy, it sometimes took only eighty pitches to do it.

This Rotation Can Get Hot

You might go long in the tooth waiting for the Oakland offense to click on all cylinders, but even the best performance of a V6 is not going to to be better than a V8. But the rotation can get hot. Real hot. Like one run or fewer in fifteen consecutive starts hot. The fact that it hasn't happened yet (and the fact that Brett Anderson and Justin Duchscherer are out) shouldn't fool you; this rotation is talented, deep, and, with the exception of Sheets (who is only 33) young.

Ben Sheets, Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez and Vin Mazzaro will start to tear through the league, as everyday position players start to feel the grind in their wrists, shoulders, legs, knees and ankles. So far, Ben Sheets has been a control pitcher with poor control. Trevor Cahill has been a sinkerballer whose pitches have remained up in the zone, Gio Gonzalez is a strikeout pitcher that can't put people away and Vin Mazzaro is a dominant starter who has been dominated. But all are making great strides.

Sheets looked great in his last start. For the first time he was around the zone in the entire game, and hitters looked off-balance. The only problem was that the strike zone was so ridiculously inconsistent that I can think of at least seven pitches that should have been called strikes that weren't and affected the outcome of the game considerably. Nonetheless, he threw sixty-six of his ninety-seven pitches for strikes.

Vin Mazzaro has looked shaky, but he, too, looked better in his last start in Boston--and earned a win. And he deserves a lot of credit for coming in at Arlington a couple weeks ago, giving up a hit and then a home run, but settling in and pitching five innings and not allowing much of anything else. Once he turns that corner, and starts to believe that he can duplicate at the major league level the dominance he has experienced probably since he was in little league, he'll be hard to catch--especially as hitters start to feel the broad, wide middle of the major league schedule.

Dallas Braden has been consistent. In the top ten in innings pitched, walks per nine and WHIP, the one thing he has not been the benefactor of since his perfect game is run support. He's given up some runs in his last few starts, to be sure, but he hasn't let one of those games get out of hand, and he's been playing through injuries, illnesses, and a giant target on his back. His last start against Minnesota, the only real mistake was getting torched by the best hitter in all of baseball.

Gio Gonzalez is the weakest link, and he's been excellent at times. His problem is getting the last out of an inning. So many times he gets a quick two outs and then can't seem to get the last one. The numbers don't lie, however. Statistically, your chances of scoring without a runner in scoring position with two outs is very small; statistical anomalies almost always work out in favor of the averages. The third out of an inning will come when Gio Gonzalez starts throwing to contact with two outs instead of trying to be too fine and walking the batter.

And this rotation is set, after the Angels, to face the Giants, Cubs, Cardinals, Reds, Pirates, Orioles and Indians--twenty-one games against teams (with the exception of the Pirates) that have trouble scoring runs. The one that doesn't can't pitch. Of course, there could be another injury to the rotation; Vin Mazzaro, Trevor Cahill or Gio Gonzalez could take a step back instead of forward. But when you look at the chances that those offenses are going to do much damage against this rotation, you definitely got to bet on the rotation.

As for the upcoming series against the Angels, well, a split would be a major moral victory; winning the series would be incredible; sweeping unthinkable. I wouldn't think of it as proving that you're better than the Angels, but managing to survive an Angels hot streak without getting buried in the division. If they can make it out of the series no more than two games out of first place--even if that team that's in first place is the Angels--then you've survived. A win tonight guarantees that after the series the Angels can be no more than 2 1/2 games ahead of the A's in the standings after the series.

But either way, this rotation can get hot. 

Three Outs

When I try to explain to foreigners what baseball is, I say that baseball is the struggle between the batter, the guy with the bat, and the pitcher, the guy throwing the ball. In the batter's mind, the hardest thing in the world to do is not make an out. In the pitcher's mind, the hardest thing in the world to do is to get one.

For Oakland relievers the last six games, the hardest thing in the world to do has been to record any out. For Michael Wuertz, it was especially improbable that he be the one to get those final three outs that won the ballgame. Struggling to get back in form after surgery, Wuertz has been unimpressive since coming back. Just when it seemed like the bag of Oakland relievers pitching tricks was empty, Wuertz pulled out a win.

Of course, that doesn't change much about the problems in the bullpen since entering Boston. They were lucky to win the last game in Fenway, and they were lucky to win the last game at home against the Twins. But then again, the fact that they got it means a whole hell of a lot. If the bullpen blew it on three consecutive nights, I don't think they would have recovered. The fact they didn't means they might start getting back into being the best bullpen in baseball. There's a reason that they win almost every game in which the offense scores four runs or more in: the bullpen has been nasty.

Not a moment too soon, as the Angels come into town tomorrow, and they're on a tear. They won't slow them down all in one go, but they certainly can't stop them if the bullpen can't stop anybody. Now at least when they go into the ninth tied or with a lead, they can at least say it's a fifty fifty shot.  

Walks and Strikeouts

The Oakland A's face a rotation this weekend with all five in the two twenty in fewest walks per 9 IP. Liriano has a high strikeout per 9 IP ratio, the others do not. The A's counter with Braden tonight, who gives up the fewest walks per nine of any pitcher in the majors (or did) and is fourth in WHIP, and Gio Gonzalez, who is in the top ten in strikeouts per 9 IP. Add to the mix the Oakland-Alameda Coliseum, and the likelihood of the four- and five-run innings like the A's experienced at Fenway recede into the distance.

The difference could be the virtual day off between the Red Sox and Twins series at home, because of the time difference, and the virtual ten-game homestand, because of the "road" series against the Giants a week from today. They don't play a game outside the Bay Area again until the fifteenth of June.

The Twins are on the back end of a West Coast swing, and a pitcher's park is just what their offense doesn't need. The pitching staff might be able to take advantage of struggling hitters on a tough road trip and pitch them like they did the Giants last month. Those games were all close, but the A's managed to scratch out just enough runs to win them, although an assist has to be given to a struggling Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina, who grounded out or struck out it seemed like in the ninth just when it looked like they might have something going. The Twins' have these guys Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

The A's won't win unless they keep people off the bases, especially via the base on balls, because the Twins aren't likely to give up much in that department. If you get on against the Twins, it's going to be by the bat, and the A's have proven that stringing together clean hits is asking a whole hell of a lot from them. While we hold our breath, let's just hope Braden, Gonzalez and Cahill don't let the game get out of reach.    

Your Oakland A's No. 2 Starter

Well, Anderson is down again, and this time it might be for the count. However, it gave the A's an opportunity to plug in Vin Mazzaro, who they wanted to plug into the rotation anyway, until and if they can get Josh Outman back in the mix this year. His line:

3 1/3 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

In Fenway, coming in in a spot start, that's actually pretty impressive. The thing with Mazzaro appears to be that he doesn't seem to have a strikeout pitch at the major league level, which is strange because he certainly had one at the minor league level. So long as he keeps his walks down, though, I can live with all the hits, so long as it doesn't make him change his approach such that he walks a whole bunch of batters to avoid contact.

You really look at a guy like Dallas Braden though, versus a guy like Vin Mazzaro. Braden pitched a couple of good games when he first came up and then got rocked pretty hard and was sent back down. He battled back and had a mediocre year, before having a breakout year this year. Mazzaro, on the other hand, has been a stud every place he's gone so far. He might not have the resilience Braden has shown, to be able to deal with not being given a fair shot. In terms of the Big Three of the early oughts, I think of Braden like Hudson, and Mazzaro like Zito.

Hudson could get rocked. But he was a guy that would give up a home run and then pitched five innings of shutout ball after that. Braden's the same way. He may get rocked, but you're not going to rock him, you're just going to make him more resolved to strike you out. Mazzaro, like Zito, is the opposite. You get to him and you shake his whole mental state. This was Mazzaro's best performance this year at the major league level, and he still took 82 pitches to get through 3 1/3 and gave up 9 hits. In the minors he had a nonexistent ERA with tons of strikeouts per nine and an above-average WHIP.

Mazzaro, like Zito, has the best stuff of any of the young starters. He should be taking the league by storm. But Mazzaro, like Zito, is never going to go out and take charge of a staff the way that Hudson did, and now Braden is. Look at Hudson and Zito now, after all. Hudson's busted through adversity and still manages to pitch effectively. Zito has cruised through his career injury-wise, and is still the biggest free agent bust of all time. Thus, Mazzaro is worth more as an idea than as a starter. Let's get value out of the idea before we find out he doesn't have much value as a starer.

Balls and Strikes

I know it sounds like being a sore loser when you say that a game was decided on balls and strikes, but if there ever was one, it happened last night in Boston for the A's. Ben Sheets threw a ton of first pitch strikes that were called balls, and they significantly altered the game in innumerable ways.

On the other hand, 84 of Daisuke's 109 pitches were called strikes, and Greg Maddux he was not. I can think of three pitches to Daric Barton and 2 pitches to Jack Cust that were obvious balls, but were called strikes that would have significantly altered the game. But the proof is in the pudding. 84 strikes is a significant achievement. For a comparison, in the two-hitter Justin Verlander threw last month, he only pitched 80 out of 116 for strikes, and that was a very dominant performance.

For 84 of Daisuke's 109 pitches to be called strikes, the umpires were saying that he was significantly more dominant than a pitcher that threw a two-hitter. That doesn't make much damn sense. 

Daisuke v. Sheets

Talk about two similar guys. Daisuke's been worse, but both are serious question-marks at the front of their respective rotations. Daisuke's given up 27 H and 21 BB in 34 1/3 IP--including an insane eight walks in his last start. Of course, Sheets has been known to walk a couple batters--he's given up 29 BB in 62 1/3 IP this year.

The difference, as with Dontrelle Willis, is whether you can make the pitcher pay. He was erratic, but the A's only managed three runs against him--so erratic that he was subsequently released. Now, the Boston offense looked to be in the same bind as the Oakland offense--actually worse--through five, but in walked the bullpen and undid those binds. The Boston bullpen did exactly the opposite.

This will be a battle of bullpens, and that gives the edge to the A's, most normally. Boston has a great bullpen, to be sure, but the A's have a better one. It didn't show up last night, but call it Fenway opening night jitters or something--it's not likely to happen again. Instead, it will be a race to which offense can make the most of early opportunities--and no doubt both starting pitchers will provide them.

Of course, we'll hear it seventeen more times tonight, that Ben Sheets is really turning things around, turning things around, but repeating it doesn't make it any truer. We laud him when he gets out of the seventh unscathed; this is a guy who regularly threw complete game shutouts. That was what made him the name pitcher we thought we were getting. Hell, of all of the pitchers I most admired in the league, Ben Sheets was the guy. And the Brew Crew, for much of his career, was not even half the offense this Oakland team is. 

Blevins and Ross

Ross got up to pitch the fifth; Blevins ended up pitching 2/3 in the seventh. His line: 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K. Considering how crowded the bullpen in getting, with Wuertz coming into his own, Ziegler maintaining his own, and Bailey not blowing his position, we're getting to a point at which on of these relievers is not like the other, insofar as one of them will not be with the Athletics at the end of the regular season. Which one will it be? Six-six Tyson Ross, or Jerry Blevins?

The smart money is on Tyson Ross. You can get a lot more trade value out of him. He's young and can still command another pitch: a slider, perhaps, or a curveball. But no GM in the league is going to be fooled. Tyson Ross and Jerry Blevins are two sides of the same coin. You pick one, and you excite the best of the other. You pick the other, you excite the best of the one. One of them is going to be a superstar. One of them is going to be a bust. Which is it going to be? One or the other. One or the other?

Into this equation, you enter age. But age doesn't help you win a championship this year. If anything, concentrating on age will lose you a championship this year. Jerry Blevins or Tyson Ross? Tyson Ross or Jerry Blevins? In the mix holds the entire hope of being a contender. 

The Soft Part of the Tiger's Rotation

One knew there had to be a reason why the Tigers are expected to do more with their bats than on the mound (their terrific bullpen, of course, excluded). That's because 3-5 in their rotation is not getting it done.

Willis: 25 BB and 39 H in 38 IP

Porcello: 18 BB and 67 H in 50 IP

Gallaraga: 4 BB and 11 H in 10 1/3 IP

That's a combined WHIP of 1.67. Of course, the A's offense has made some middling starting pitching look pretty good, but it hasn't yet made awful pitching look passable. You know with the Tigers that you're not going to get many shutouts; the question is, with Willis, if you can be patient and let him take himself out of the game, and with Porcello, apparently, if you have a bat and your hands and you intend to swing it.

Of course, Sheets has been pretty hittable, and Anderson will not go more than 75-80 pitches on Saturday (if he even makes the start), so there's some questions at the front of the Oakland rotation even as it faces the back end of the Tigers rotation. But I can't think of a better cure for the A's road woes than facing those starters.

Ben Sheets is not turning it around. He may have wriggled his way out of jams on Sunday, but he was eminently hittable. A ridiculous grab by Mark Ellis saved his whole afternoon. He'd thrown 86 pitches through four because he could not find the plate, and the San Francisco offense he "shut down" hasn't managed much all offensively all season. He struggled mightily through six, which does not augur well considering that, best case scenario, Anderson will only go six himself.

Update: Galarraga pitched tonight, which means he probably won't start as scheduled on Sunday. Cruising around the Detroit blogosphere, it appears that Max Scherzer is the likely fill in. He hasn't been called back up from the minors yet (because it involves a difficult roster move) where he was sent on May 15 after going 1-4 in 8 starts and giving up 54 hits and 16 walks in 42 innings, but apparently has nothing left to prove at the minor league level.

Make Powell Gonzalez's Personal Catcher

Another fun line to add to the fire: 0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 0 K

Tyson Ross is all kinds of awful all of a sudden, and it's just been in the last couple of weeks. It's real easy to break down what the problem is: he was throwing all of his pitches for strikes before, and now he's pitching none of them. His delivery was so compact before, and now he's wide open, probably because he's afraid of getting rocked. I don't know what to say.

Gio Gonzalez, on the other hand, was a lot worse than his line.

6 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

For some reason, Gio Gonzalez cannot pitch with two outs. He gets two outs in an inning, and he seems compelled to walk the very next batter, even though after getting two quickly outs is exactly when you should start believing in your stuff. You can of course, look at the bright side of it: he's getting those first two outs. Chances are, he's going to be able to get a third at some point in the inning. There's another chance, though, and that's the chance that walking a lot of batters is going to cause problems in the long run.

I got to say, that I believe if they had put Powell behind the plate and Suzuki in the DH spot, they would have been better off, as far as Gonzalez goes. Cust was monstrous at the plate; so has every other DH. I had to think, anyway, that when I saw Suzuki batting with two outs in the first, that his mind couldn't have been on hitting. He had a game plan running through his head and he was becoming anxious as to whether or not it was a good one.

Look, I do see the logic in preferring offensive numbers; but the logic only holds up if the DH spot has a better hitter beckoning. I think what you're looking at in Suzuki is a guy whose numbers are depressed because he has so many other responsibilities (which he performs admirably, but not exceptionally) and a young pitching staff that just doesn't seem to respond to his presence behind the plate. I just think you could look at the catching/DH position as responding not only to day/night situations and lefty-righty but also think about the pitcher on the mound, and whether Kurt Suzuki is the guy to have behind the plate for that particular pitcher.

Ross' Role

I was a big fan of inserting Tyson Ross into the starter's role. It seems, however, that the starts and then the move back to the bullpen has messed with his mojo a little.

His last three lines:

Yesterday: 1 2/3 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 0 K

May 20: 4 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

May 15: 3 2/3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Totals: 9 IP, 11 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 7 K

Record: 0-3 WHIP: 1.56 K/9 IP: 7.00

You could make a lot of excuses: he's twice been thrust in the role of emergency starter without proper side sessions and other training that starters usually get to make them more effective longer, but it's very simple: his breaking pitch ain't breaking. It seems like a mechanical issue, which is strange, because his mechanics were gorgeous at the start of the year. He looked so professional.

Catcher's Era

I know catcher's ERA (CERA) has been much discredited in the sabermetric community, but the point of sabermetrics is to find out the truth, and not to be blinded by superstition. So instead of make an argument for or against, let's let the numbers speak for themselves by keeping the pitcher constant: Gio Gonzalez.

May 17 (Suzuki): 7 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K

May 12 (Powell): 4 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

May 7 (Donaldson): 7 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 7 K

May 1 (Donaldson): 6 2/3 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

April 25 (Fox): 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

April 20 (Suzuki): 4 1/3 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 5 BB, 5 K

April 15 (Suzuki): 4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

April 9 (Suzuki): 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Suzuki: 22 IP, 15 H, 12 R, 12 ER, 14 BB, 20 K

Others: 24 2/3 IP, 20 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 9 BB, 21 K

Comparative WHIP: -0.14

Comparative K/9 IP: +0.52

So less hits, more walks, and slightly more K's with Suzuki; more hits, less walks and slightly less strikeouts with others. I think those back to back starts tell you a lot. With Powell, 0 BB, but 9 H; with Suzuki, 4 BB, but only 4 H. But because of the walks, those 4 hits turned into 3 runs; whereas the previous start, those 9 hits turned into only 4 runs.

The bottom line? I think it's time to try Powell as the everyday catcher with Suzuki, their best overall hitter, in the DH spot. I think that's sort of a no-brainer. I mean, I dig getting that kind of offensive production out of the catcher--Lord knows what a sinkhole it's been offensively since Terry Steinbach left for Minnesota--but no more so than, say, putting Jake Fox or Eric Patterson in the lineup. I just think there has been an appreciable difference, and it's time to see if that difference is worth the cost.

Gio Gonzalez is not finishing his pitches when Kurt Suzuki catches him. That's just the bottom line. Now we could argue that it's really up to Gio Gonzalez to make due with what he has, but we both know that Gio Gonzalez isn't going to man up to anything anytime soon. Someone has to make him finish his pitches, and then means setting up inside all of the time. Landon Powell seemed to understand that about him; Suzuki seems sort of clueless about it.

Don't get me wrong. I like Suzuki a lot. And the club is probably right that even given there being a difference between the catchers behind the plate, there's simply nothing that can approximate having his offensive production in the catcher's spot in the lineup. But when you see something that compelling--0 BB from Gonzalez, a perfect game from Braden--you have to take a step back and wonder what would happen if you put Powell behind the plate every day and Suzuki in the DH spot (which, by the way, is itself an offensive sinkhole).

A Tale of Two Starters

So they did exactly as I would have liked: Ross for 4, and Mazzaro for 5. The two lines:

Ross: 4 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Mazzaro: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

So who would you pick? I choose...I choose...both. I think this a good model to deal with Duchscherer's spot in the rotation, until Anderson comes back (and rumor has it he might soon). You might say, flip the two, but I disagree. I think Mazzaro pitched better because he had nothing to prove.

As for Ross, was it just me, or was he able to throw strikes when he needed to, but unable to when he didn't? Somebody needs to take him aside and tell him that there's not a single pitch in a single at-bat that's not important to the end result of the game. The difference between a batter being an 0-2 count and a 2-0 count as far as the probability of the end result of the game is not insignificant. On a single batter I mean.

Nonetheless, I think this is a winning formula, not just for this start, but for breaking guys into the majors in general. I don't think anybody should look at it like, hey, well, Vin Mazzaro had a slightly better line than Tyson Ross, therefore, choose one not the other. Having two future starters in the fifth spot keeps the bullpen fresh, and keeps pressure off of one or the other from feeling like the weight of the whole game is on their shoulders.

As inconsistent as Gonzalez, Ross, Mazzaro, Anderson and Cahill have been generally (because they're young), why not us those five guys like a tag team pitching corps, with the expectation that they will be the rotation at some point in the future? Or was that the plan all along, and I'm just now realizing it?

Tyson Ross

Tyson Ross has been announced as the starter for tomorrow's game versus one Jeremy Bonderman, who was pretty public a few year ago about the fact that he thought he'd been given a raw deal in the A's minor league system. Probably doesn't have the chip on his shoulder he once did versus the A's, but still has pretty good career numbers against the A's.

Tyson Ross, on the other hand, in short order, has been catapulted from rookie reliever to primary set-up guy, and now to fourth starter. He's basically a two pitch pitcher, but those two pitches are pretty good. The only thing to watch with him is the movement on his breaking pitch; he's effective when it starts high and outside and nips the plate; when it gets flat, he's hittable.

His last three lines: 

(L) 3 2/3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

(W) 3 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

(ND) 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

Totals: 8 2/3 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

Record: 1-1 WHIP: 1.15 K/9 IP: 5.77

Some Other Guys in the Minors

Vin Mazzaro: 30 1/3 IP, 28 H, 11 R, 9 ER, 14 BB, 35 K

Record: 2-1 WHIP: 1.38 K/9 IP: 10.38 Age: 23

Bottom Line: Has nothing left to prove at the minor league level.

Prospectus: Will be back with the team soon--possibly starting in Duchscherer's spot in the rotation.

Clay Mortensen: 43 IP, 48 H, 29 R, 22 ER, 15 BB, 33 K

Record: 4-1 WHIP: 1.47 K/9 IP: 6.91 Age: 25

Bottom Line: The only numbers that impress are the wins, which are dependent on offensive production that day. His strikeouts need to go up and his WHIP needs to go down--especially the walks. If he just cut his walk total in half he'd have the Major Leagues calling.

Prospectus: Is in the unfortunate situation of watching younger guys taste some success in the Big Leagues. Is in the other unfortunate situation of probably benefitting from a fresh start somewhere else but not having any takers. He will probably succeed somewhere at the Major League level; unfortunately for him, it might not be Oakland.

Cedric Bowers

His minor league numbers: 17 2/3 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 8 BB, 26 K

Record: 1-1 WHIP: 1.02 K/9 IP: 13.92

He was dominating the minors, and was worth a try at the major league level. Unfortunately, he's 32--the second oldest person on the active roster. Has human interest story written all over it; hopefully, he can also pitch.

Got a Deal for You

I've been watching a lot of the Pirates lately, and they have the one thing we can't seem to find: position players with pop. There's one thing we have that they can't seem to find: decent starting pitching. That seems like a no-brainer. The back end of our rotation for the middle to bottom of the Pirates lineup. It's win-win for both clubs I think.

As for our starting pitching, it's been actually pretty decent, even on the road. The totals for the week.

Cahill (L): 7 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

Ross (L): 3 2/3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Braden (L): 8 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

Sheets (ND): 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K

Gonzalez (L): 4 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Cahill (ND): 5 2/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

Totals: 34 1/3 IP, 31 H, 17 R, 17 ER, 6 BB, 22 K

Record: 0-4 WHIP: 1.08 K/9 IP: 5.77

The hits are worrisome, but because of the six walks, that's a WHIP of 1.08--pretty impressive. Without Anderson or Duchscherer. I think they should have let Ross go 5. Each of the games they started, one must remember, only got out of hand because Gaudin came in and got pounded, for which he was summarily demoted.

Blevins got rocked on Saturday, but we must remember that warming up for a third of an inning is no different as far as stress on the arm as warming up and going three. If they used him every fourth or fifth day for three they'd get a lot better results than using him every other day for a couple outs.

Still, I think there's actually a lot to be positive about on the starting pitching front, with the exception of Duchscherer yet again going out for the season. Hopefully someone in the organization paid attention to the fact that Ross retired nine batters in a row to start the game, and that the 3-1 fastball that Matsui hit for a home run should have been a 2-2 count (where was that pitch), and that's probably what Ross was thinking about when he hung that slider.

The Perfect Game Hangover

No doubt the biggest story in sports will be how Dallas Braden pitches tonight, barring a press conference from Brett Favre on his future in the game, or a press conference from Tiger Woods on his future. No matter how well he pitches, he can't match the hype. Going six or seven and allowing a couple runs on a few hits will be considered a middling start.

It all begins with walks. This year, he's walked 7 batters in 46 innings. For a comparison, Ziegler's walked 9 in 17. Because his strikeout numbers are not all that impressive, continuing to not walk batters is his most impressive weapon. A perfect game is nice; not walking a batter in three consecutive starts would be a much more impressive feat. You look at a guy like Gio Gonzalez, who has walked 19 in 39 2/3 IP, and he's obviously buoyed by the fact that he's struck out 37 batters. Braden must continue to throw strikes if he's going to succeed.

Hopefully, someone will remind Braden that not allowing a hit was a team effort; not allowing a walk was all him, and he didn't allow a walk in his previous start either, in which he pitched seven strong innings. He probably won't throw a no-hitter the rest of his career, but that doesn't matter; a guy who doesn't strike out many batters shouldn't expect to throw no-hitters. Not walking many batters, though, is going to mean long-term success.

Well...

The pitching staff did only give up two runs in 11 1/3 IP. In Arlington. Of course, it was a clinic in offensive futility for the Rangers as much as the A's. They had about as many men in scoring position with less than two outs not score as the A's--and we know the A's are not going to shock anybody with their power.

As far as Bailey goes, well, Ziegler was lucky to make it out of the ninth. But then, Ziegler's supposed to be their set-up guy, and Bailey their closer, so I guess there's never an excuse when either one of them gives up game-tying or game-winning runs--or even puts runners in scoring position unless they're inherited runners, and putting them in scoring position is being traded for outs.

As for Sheets, I do think it was pretty good to have enough composure to withstand having a strikeout victim reach on a passed ball, and then get into scoring position on a bad throw to first. Those are the type of plays that discombobulate a guy like Gio Gonzalez--or for that matter, Brad Ziegler. Of course, when every out is a struggle, I guess you don't quibble with how you do or don't get one.

It really gets into the mysticism of the game. Do you get outs because you expect to get outs, or do you get outs because the natural flow of the game leads to them? In other words, do you stand against a mighty river of runs when you pitch, or do you gently guide a river of outs?

The Back End of the Bullpen

Whoa. That was all kinds of awful.

Gaudin: 1 2/3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

Rodriguez: 1 1/3 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Ramirez: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

I don't know if you can argue that any of those guys deserve a roster spot, especially considering the A's ran out of position players in the ninth inning on Tuesday. Of course, some of the position players didn't exactly make a case for why, when Suzuki and then later, Crisp and Ellis, come back, they shouldn't themselves be demoted.

But Jesus. I have about zero respect for Yankees management. After all, it seems like year after year they spend the most money per win of any team in any sport. But it looks as if Gaudin and Ramirez shouldn't just have been released, but possibly tarred and feathered as well.

Rodriguez is only twenty-three, so he has two to three years before he can be considered a bust--although it appears as if it will take him two to three years at least to get command of his fastball. Then again, though, maybe throwing 100 and being known as wild is not necessarily a bad thing. I mean, not that wild, but still.

That would have been the perfect opportunity for Mazzaro. Why would you start him or demote him rather than bring him into that situation, in which it would appear innings were not at a premium?  

Gio Gonzalez

His last three lines:

May 7 (L): 7 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 7 K

May 1 (W): 6 2/3 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

April 25 (W): 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Totals: 20 2/3 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 9 BB, 18 K

Record: 2-1 WHIP: .97 K/9: 7.84

Andrew Bailey Debriefing

His line: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K. Is it just me or does the closer for the A's not seem to have a strikeout pitch working at the current moment? He used to look imposing on the mound--even psychopathic. Now he looks uncomfortable.

As for the RBI hit--that was a nice piece of hitting. An inside out swing on the fastball with a lot of movement down in the zone. I don't think there was anything you could do about that, except to say that Bailey's did not look imposing the entire inning. That's bore out by his strikeouts per 9 IP: 4.26. Last season it was 9.83.

You can't have a closer who doesn't scare batters, and I wonder if there's sort of an interrelation between being imposing on the mound and strikeouts. The way he used to just stand there, with his hat bobbing up and down--the flat affect of a serial killer. Just a thought.

Brad Ziegler Debriefing

Line: 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K...and a HBP. Definite case of compounding an error by overcompensating for the result. I mean, consider this scenario. You're holding a cup of liquid that's scalding hot. You almost lose your grip on it moving forward, so you pull it towards you--so you burn hand instead of having lost the beverage. That's exactly what he did. He hit a guy to his right of the plate, and then served it up high and on (to the left-handed batter) the inner half of the plate.

The art of dealing with error is to realize that greater calamity waits in your reaction to that error. I think Hamilton understood that, swinging first pitch fastball from a submariner; why was Ziegler, who is supposed to be in control of the game, the only person who didn't realize that he was at risk of making a mistake not from the mistake itself but from reacting to that mistake?

So you say this: in the future, when you make a mistake--even a home run--you have to ascertain whether it is a greater calamity to have committed the mistake, or to commit others in reaction to that mistake. And the club has to work on their reaction to that error. Delay the game. Call a pitch out. Something to get the pitcher's mind out of the error. 

Jerry Blevins

Blevins, while admittedly he did walk a batter, lowered his opponents batting average to .216. Cahill, on the other hand, lowered his slightly to .262, while only going 5 2/3. Ross looked uncomfortable on the mound for the first time. I don't know if that was because of the unexpected at-bat or what, but he definitely did not look his usual composed self.

Do I think that Jerry Blevins is the second coming of Christ? No. But I think it should be a race between Cahill, Blevins and Ross for that fifth slot, and right now Blevins looks like he can get guys out with the most efficiency.

I did enjoy Cahill being lifted without anybody on the base paths in the sixth with two outs. The best pitching change I have witnessed all year with the possible exception of Joe Girardi lifting a New York set up man in the middle of an at-bat for Mariano Rivera. Not because the guy was hurt, but because he went 3-1 on a batter. 

Colby Lewis

Facing the Athletics tonight is Colby Lewis. His last three lines:

May 5 v. the A's (L): 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

April 30 v. Seattle (ND): 9 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

April 25 v. Detroit (W): 6 1/3 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 10 K

Totals: 21 2/3 IP, 15 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 6 BB, 26 K

Record: 1-1 WHIP: 0.97

The Week That Was (Relievers)

Bailey: 3 1/3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

Ziegler: 3 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Ross: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Breslow: 2 2/3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Wuertz: 1 2/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Blevins: 1 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Gaudin: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Totals: 16 1/3 IP, 13 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 10 K

WHIP: 0.98

Bottom Line: The relief staff is nasty. Bailey leads the league in baserunners per nine and Ziegler's in the top 10. Breslow and Wuertz round out the bullpen nicely, with Ross proving effective in his rookie season, Blevins doing his job as a situational lefty and Gaudin mopping up garbage innings. Worth it to note that Gaudin leads the league in inherited baserunners scored, at 0. Of course, he doesn't seem to have the same luck with his own baserunners, but that's a different story.

Prospectus: The league doesn't stand much of a chance unless it can get to the soft part of the Oakland rotation. We always seem to note the incredible amount of appearances and innings pitching for A's relievers, but it never seems to hobble them. They've led the league with Wuertz out until last week and Devine out for more than a year. Henry Rodriguez hasn't even been thrown into the mix yet, and his fastball's supposed to top out at 100.

The Week That Was (Starters)

Braden (L): 7 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Mazzaro (ND): 3 IP, 2 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K

Cahill (W): 5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

Gonzalez (L): 7 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 7 K

Sheets (W): 6 1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K

Braden (W): 9 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Totals: 37 1/3 IP, 25 H, 13 R, 12 ER, 15 BB, 32 K

Record: 4-2 WHIP: 1.07

Bottom Line: Cahill and Mazzaro are garbage; Gonzalez walks too many damn batters; Ben Sheets is probably better than his numbers indicate, but should nevertheless only be the No. 1 guy on a team like, oh, I don't know...the Brewers. Braden and Duchscherer are fighting to be discussed as top starters in the game today; unfortunately for both of them that means fighting with their body to comply with their wishes.

Prospectus: John Shea reports that Duchscherer may make his scheduled start on Saturday. If that's true, it significantly increases the possibility of quality innings from the starters. I don't know if the A's organization is going to face it now or in the future: without one more veteran guy in the rotation (perhaps one they already have), at least one start out of every five is going to be garbage until Brett Anderson comes back, and two out of five have a high probability of being garbage if Duchscherer is out for a prolonged period of time. As far as guys developing, I think it's a lot better opportunity for Mazzaro or Cahill to come in in the fourth or fifth inning without any pressure than to have the expectation of going six or seven from the outset, which is not realistic at this point in time. If Gaudin's role is to mop up garbage innings, until Anderson is back, the fifth spot is prime mop up garbage innings time.

Trevor Cahill

His two lines:

May 5: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

April 30: 5 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Compare that to the last 10 2/3 innings pitched by the bullpen in long relief.

May 5 (Ross): 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K 

May 2 (Kilby): 3 2/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

April 30: (Gaudin): 3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Insanely, Brad Kilby has since been demoted, and Cahill is being given a third start. I know we're going to hear about the A's bright young future, the A's bright young future, but it seems like the only thing the A's are working on is figuring out is how to up Cahill's trade value. If you were going on performance alone, you would have to say that either Ross, Kilby, or Jerry Blevins should get the start over Cahill, and that Cahill should be demoted to long relief--or the minors.

Promote the Bullpen

Considering the health problems in the A's rotation, it defies explanation that the organization is opting to go to the minor leagues rather than start some of their excellent long relievers. Jerry Blevins has been up and down, but a lot better than Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, or, in reality, Gio Gonzalez. Tyson Ross seems like a no-brainer. Except for one bad relief appearance (with inherited runners, mind you), he's looked dominant.

Especially considering Oakland seems to be fond of experimenting, why not experiment this way: do the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation like you would a long relief spot. Pitch a guy until he gets into trouble, replace him with another guy. He gets into trouble, replace him with another guy. While Blevins and Ross might not be able to by themselves to go seven, they can certainly effectively split seven innings between them.

In that way, you have a true system of promotion. The system of promotion currently goes like this. A starter goes down, so we're going to throw a guy in there and expect him, with little or no major league experience, or few or no career starts, to go six or seven innings. Why? Why not expect a guy in a spot start to go three, and be surprised if he lasts seven, rather than expect him to go seven and be surprised that he only lasts three?

Duchscherer is the perfect example of a guy for whom this worked. He came up in 2004 and was asked to do long relief. I remember one game his rookie year he pitched the ninth, ten, eleventh, twelfth and thirteenth innings on the road (where a single run would have been the end of the game) for a win. They didn't do this by choice; it was at the end of a series and they didn't have anybody else to pitch extra innings. They were basically up and against a wall, and found a starting pitcher.

This is not to say that every long reliever will be a good starter, nor that every starter will make a good long reliever, but to say that chances are, a guy that is a good long reliever in the big leagues has as good or better chance at being a good starting pitcher than a guy with no major league experience whatsoever. Plus, it's sort of brutal to send a guy out, see three runs go up on the board, and hope he "settles down." I would love to see the statistics for the probability of giving up runs after having given up one, two, or three already. If he gives up three runs, yank him. Ben Sheets or no.