Monday, May 23, 2011

The Greatest Name for a Pitcher

Josh Outman, who A's announcer Ken Korach likes to refer to as the best named player in baseball, tries to pick up where he left off two years ago, when he went 4-1 with a 3.48 ERA, allowing 53 hits and 25 walks in 67 1/3 IP and striking out 72.

The scouting report is that he's lost some life on his fastball, although he hit 95 on the gun his last start for Sacramento. Hopefully, being low on the depth chart will be an advantage tonight, although if anyone has a scouting report on him it would be Mike Scoscia's club, whose triple-A team also plays in the Pacific Coast League.

To make room for him, Jerry Blevins was designated for assignment. It's been a sad story arc for the left-hander, beginning as starter in the Oakland system, coming up in 2007 after the fire sale, pitching serviceably but continually getting demoted or otherwise pushed aside, and then finding himself the odd man out with the return of Michael Wuertz and Joey Devine.

Blevins was the best lefty in the A's bullpen at times last year, with so many injuries and new faces; he also walked a lot of batters and was eminently hittable at times. I'm not absolutely sure that the A's had no use for him, but I understand that the system is clogged; Jerry Blevins will never be a setup man, closer or starter, and he's not young anymore.

We still don't know who'll pitch tomorrow, although the three most likely candidates within the organization are Guillermo Moscoso, Travis Banwart and David Purcey. I think the most likely scenario is one of the two minor league starters being added to the roster tomorrow, but David Purcey starting and maybe having a max pitch count of 75-80, and hoping for some extended performances by Breslow/Ziegler/Balfour.

Brian Fuentes ripped into Bob Geren in the media yesterday after the game. That figures, since he just blew his sixth save and pretty much every other person in the bullpen looks better than him right now. I don't blame him for pointing out that he's overused and that the A's had two extra relievers after placing Brandon McCarthy and Tyson Ross on the DL, but those two pitchers were Fautino de los Santos and Jerry Blevins--the first who would be making his major league debut and the other who was designated for assignment the next day.

Geren decided putting in his closer at 75% was better than either of those two at 100% with a 4-4 tie away. Almost any manager in the game would have made the same decision, Mr. Fuentes. Sorry. I guess he smells the demotion coming, and he wants to make it clear to anybody who's listening that it was Bob Geren's fault that he blew six saves.

Well, as I always say, once an Angel always an Angel.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Clay Mortensen in Colorado

Clay Mortensen, who couldn't find a spot in Oakland's injury plagued starting rotation last year and was snubbed for Bobby Cramer (who himself is mired in the minor leagues, despite pitching admirably last year), is pitching for the Rockies instead this year. The results so far are pretty good for a pitcher who pitches in mile high stadium: 13 H and 9 BB in 22 1/3 IP. He made Giants hitters look foolish at times and stayed with Tim Lincecum, who eventually fell apart, giving up a five spot that won the game for the Rockies.

The reason that's usually given for Clay Mortensen's second class status in the A's organization were his off the field problems, including a DUI not long after he was acquired from the Cardinals in the Matt Holliday deal. But he promptly started last season 9-2, being named a PCL All-Star. He was not called up, however, with Beane preferring Chad Gaudin, Henry Rodriguez and, eventually, Tyson Ross.

I'm glad they let go of Mortensen, and I'll be happier when they let go of Cramer, too, but there's another option: trade the middle of the rotation for position players you direly need, move the back of the rotation to the middle, and plug up the back end of the rotation as necessary. Do something bold, like trade Gonzalez for a decent third baseman. The platoon of LaRoche and Kouzmanoff is not working--on a number of levels. Both have the propensity to swing on the first pitch when the situation calls for patience; overplay the ball at third; and generally bat in the bottom third of the lineup, when the third baseman should typically bat fifth.

And, of course, there's first base, where we have stuck with Barton for far too long. He continues to dazzle defensively--and may be, in fact, now be the best defensive first baseman in the league. But you need one thing from first base and one thing only: power. Barton has yet to hit a home run this year, and will never be the 25 HR 75 RBI guy they thought he was. So you've got to get that guy if he's going to play first base.

I know what Beane and Co. are thinking: do what you do best and don't worry about trying to do something you're incapable of. But you can get into a pattern of stockpiling too many good young pitchers to the exclusion of other concerns. It's pretty embarrassing to bring a non-fan out the game and have the home team score one or two runs on five singles, a stolen base and an error. Winning is everything, but at least try to put power hitters at first and third. Leave Ellis and Pennington at second and short if you wish, but Koutzmanoff and Barton have got to go.

And you've got only one thing to trade for power--arms. We could realistically part with Gonzalez, Ross, Breslow and Wuertz and give up only maybe a half run a game more, considering that we have Blevins and Cramer, to just name the major-league ready guys, plus minor-league guys knocking on the door. In exchange for Gonzalez, Ross, Breslow and Wuertz, I think you could at least get 81 RBIs--a half run a game.

And a much more exciting product to watch.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Why Keep Bobby Cramer at All?

Here's a question: what's the point of keeping Bobby Cramer around if you have no interest in pitching him? I can appreciate that we went pretty low on the depth chart last year because of injuries to the starting rotation, but by now we have a couple guys kicking around the minors who are chomping at the bit to be able to enter what is becoming an elite starting staff. Why, then, keep around Bobby Cramer at all? Even if it's for cash considerations, Bobby Cramer could be starting on some rotations in the major leagues; it's really not fair to keep him just in case something were to happen not only to one of our starters, but probably now two of our starters, as I think its inevitable that Ross will slip into the sixth spot on the depth chart for starters, and that doesn't even go into the guys in the minors, and the real possibility that someone will emerge by the All-Star break as impossible to ignore.

And the longer we keep him and don't use him, the less opportunities left for him to prove himself. Hell, he may be too old in two years to pitch in the big leagues at all; that's kind of a brutal way to treat a guy who has done everything he was asked to do above the level that could ever have been expected of him. I understand that he can't be flipped for much, but he can be flipped for a pittance at least, and that would allow Cramer to get regular time in a rotation, something that is probably not going to be possible with Oakland in the near future.

I understand that to our organization, he's a considerable asset--a guy who might be able to come in during a rough stretch and eat up innings. But to another organization he'd been a number 4 or 5 starter. That means regular work, and that means increased pay. As an asset in our organization, we would be foolish to part with him, but as a man who is trying to earn a living, it is bordering on cruel to stuff him in the bullpen and pitch him only when it gets to the thirteenth, or when the score is 15-2.

It's just a matter of respect. If you don't have an immediate use for a guy, especially an older guy who probably doesn't have a lot of years left to make some money, you should probably part amicably with him. We probably don't want to be known around the league as a place where no matter how good you pitch, you're probably not going to see much playing time unless several people ahead of you get hurt.

But maybe the A's will get their wish, and the White Sox will destroy them 19-3. giving that rare opportunity for Bobby Cramer to actually pitch an inning.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Bullpen Management

One thing that kills me about Bob Geren is that acts sometimes like the worst thing in the world would be if the bullpen gave up a lead...in April. I appreciate the fact that the offense isn't scoring runs, and that the starters are so incredibly good that it's a matter of respect to try, wherever possible, to get the best statistical match-ups, but it really seems like Geren shoots himself in the foot over a 162-game schedule.

See, the thing is, statistically, the best pitcher on your roster is your closer for one inning. So if you're playing the numbers, it doesn't make sense to do anything but pitch your closer for as many innings as you possibly can. Geren has then managed precisely what the numbers say: the more you pitch your best pitcher, the better the results. But look at the results over the last few years. The pattern has been to run their best pitcher into the ground and then find some other poor schmuck to take over the position. They've been really good at finding the guy to fill the hole left by the last guy's extended stay on the DL, but is that really any way to manage your bullpen?

Take a guy like Jerry Blevins. Geren always uses Blevins when there is a runner on, unless Blevins pitches so phenomenally in the previous inning that he's allowed to stay on for the next inning. On Tuesday against the Blue Jays that wasn't enough. Blevins cruised through the ninth, only to be lifted for Balfour in the tenth--which turned into a colossal disaster. I mean, the numbers don't lie. Blevins is considerably more hittable for left-handed batters, as attested by the Thome home run on Sunday.

But I think the home run on Sunday was directly attributable to being lifted the previous Tuesday--and then not pitching again until Sunday. Why not give Blevins the chance to close the game? If he had, he would have grown as a reliever, felt more confident in his ability to get guys out from both sides of the plate. He would have the opportunity to be more than he is now, rather than be locked into their expectation of him.

This is not to say that Jerry Blevins is the second coming of Christ or anything, just that April 5 is not a make or break time in the season. It is worth more to find out what you have in the guys you're not completely sure of, especially since the alternative is to run guys into the ground you will definitely need down the stretch. A healthy Balfour is September is infinitely preferable to a win on the road they had no right to in the first place, and who knows, Blevins may have gotten a tough save and felt more confident, and maybe that would have changed his approach to Thome. Maybe instead of think, I better get this guy out because I'm being put in just to get this guy out and if I don't I won't pitch again for a week, he would have thought, I get through this inning and maybe Fuentes will be setting me up in September.

Guys like Blevins and Cramer must feel like, no matter how good I am, I'm always going to come in with runners on or when the ballgame's out of reach and that's just the way it is. And guys like Balfour and Fuentes must feel like, I wonder what happens if God forbid this team makes it to the playoffs, because I'll have thrown a eighty innings already, and that's a damn lot for me. And when they feel a little bit off, you know what happens? They try too hard. And when they try too hard and they feel a little bit off, you know what happens? Lengthy stints on the disabled list.

So why not try this: leave the bringing in your closer with a 6-5 lead on the road for after the All-Star break--and find out in these first couple months while nothing really matters what a Jerry Blevins or Bobby Cramer looks like closing out a tight game. Who knows? You might even find that they don't do the worst job in the world, and you might have at least one guy in your bullpen you can count on come September that hasn't already thrown seventy innings. What a thought.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Of Gio, Powell and Suzuki

I've gone around and around on whether Landon Powell or Kurt Suzuki should catch Gio Gonzalez, and I still think, over the long term, Landon Powell should catch him and not Kurt Suzuki. I say this not because of the results of Suzuki catching Gio, but because the numbers say that, over the long term, any pitcher that consistently walks batters will suffer the consequences, and the numbers bear out that when Kurt Suzuki catches Gio Gonzalez, Gio Gonzalez consistently walks more batters.

When Landon Powell catches Gio Gonzalez, he usually gets hit harder. But the stat line Gio had on Sunday was deceiving. He went seven, and allowed only one run, but he allowed six hits and four walks. That's a WHIP of 1.43 for those of you scoring at home. Or, in other words, almost one and half baserunners per inning. Now, only one of those baserunners scored, yes, but no one ever called the Mariners the best clutch-hitting team in the majors. Their cleanup batter is professional rallykiller Jack Cust, for God's sakes, and it doesn't get much better as you go further down the lineup. The only guy in that lineup other than Ichiro that deserves to be in a major league lineup is Justin Smoak, and he's at least two years away from being the force he will some day be in the majors.

The walks will catch up to Gio, and I like his chances better challenging batters with his 95 MPH fastball than dancing around the edges, waiting for the strike call that he has neither earned from being thought of as an elite pitcher, nor will ever get because Kurt Suzuki complains about every call and holds pitches on the outside corner way too long. Kurt Suzuki seems to have learned from Jason Kendall only to have an attitude behind the plate; he doesn't seem to have realized yet that you have to earn that.

Which is not a huge knock on Suzuki. He catches an elite staff, and he can have an attitude about that. Kurt's an excellent defensive catcher; he can be a clutch hitter, although his numbers lately have dropped off a cliff. It's just that Gio is not a complete pitcher. He's a work in progress, and will be a work in progress for the next couple years. I just don't see him developing with Kurt behind the plate into a strike-throwing machine, which he will need to be to start dominating the way he can at times. Gio will get knocked around quite a bit more with Powell behind the plate, but at least he will attack the zone. Gio may learn to do by necessity what he's needed to do since he came into the league, and that's consistently throw a third pitch for a strike.

Waiting for that outside fastball to finally be called strike three isn't going to cut it, long term.

On a positive note, Jerry Blevins pitched 2, allowed no hits, one walk and struck out three. Especially impressive considering that there's really no considerable difference between Jerry Blevins and Gio Gonzalez in their pitching styles. Makes you wonder what would have happened in Friday's game if they hadn't pulled Blevins for Breslow. I say, let Cramer, Blevins and Ziegler mop up the innings until the eighth and platoon Breslow, Wuertz, Balfour and Fuentes in a closer-by-committee. A guy goes only 4 2/3 like Cahill did on Friday, you treat it like a second start lasting 2 1/3.

Cramer is sixth or seventh on the depth chart for starting, so you might as well use him like you would a starter and see how he does. This bring in a guy for one batter stuff is ridiculous, because the guy still has to warm up like he's throwing longer than a third or two-thirds of an inning. And it's kind of ridiculous to see a guy get pulled because he walked one batter, often when the pitch that walked the guy could really have gone either way.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Clay Mortensen

Looking up Vin Mazzaro's Triple-A statistics, I found another statistic that's pretty impressive: Clay Mortensen is 7-2 in 11 starts this year. His WHIP is 1.43, and his K/9 IP is 6.39, versus 1.39 and 9.16 for Mazzaro, but seven wins in eleven starts really jumps out at you--it tops the Pacific Coast League.

Wins, of course, are reliant on offense and are a bad statistic for player evaluation, like ERA, but they do tell you something about a guy: he's getting outs when they matter the most. Vin Mazzaro still has some years to develop. Mortensen is in a do or die situation right now. Get to the bigs or stop playing ball. Then you say, well, there's no room for Mortensen, considering there's only a spot for Mazzaro because of two key injuries to the rotation. Well, when you have an embarrassment of riches in one area and a poverty in another, there's only one thing to do: trade it for things you need. I can think a number of teams that would pony up for Vin Mazzaro in exchange for a seasoned hitter.

The A's are 1 1/2 games out of first place, and slipping. Unless they find at least one impact guy for their lineup they're done for. And it's not fair really to have a guy who's eighth in your depth chart but could be a number four or five guy on a team like the Mets or Cubs. At a certain point, what is he playing for? Next year, he may slip to number 9 or 10, as another year brings up the next up and coming A's arms.

I can certainly agree to a certain extent that you can never have too much good pitching, but you do have to reward performance. If you're unable to, then you've got to give the guy a shot to go somewhere that wants him. And if you can't find somewhere that wants him, then you ought to trade guys until you have enough roster spots for there to be some mobility in the ranks. Otherwise, you're never going to get surprised by a guy--and surprise is a big part of this game. Some guys have all the ability in the world, but when they get under the bright lights and big crowds, their skills wither and die. Some guys have average stuff, but when they get on the big stage they bring the crowd to its feet.

Understanding the dynamics of how and why players who don't seem like they could succeed in the majors do is admirable, but until the day when it truly is a science, some things are just going to have to be left to chance.

 

Balls and Strikes, Pt. 2

Once again the strike zone danced, and once again Ben Sheets was the loser. Seventy-seven of Scott Kazmir's 115 pitches were called for strikes, while 59 of Sheets' 89 pitches were. More importantly, 16 of Fernando Rodney's 19 pitches were called for strikes--and Greg Maddux he was not.

I don't know what it is, but some home plate umpires have some chip on their shoulder about the A's, and it's a real drag when you see a pitch go across the shins, sail outside, and be called a strike. One could understand if it had been worked up to--pitchers often work the corners and try to throw to places they can get strike calls that are hard or impossible to hit. But it wasn't as if Angels' pitchers finessed the zone--they were just given random gift calls, as if the home plate umpire were trying to send a message to A's hitters, and that's just unacceptable.

Especially because if anyone finessed the zone and threw a ton of strikes, it was Ben Sheets. He was tremendous, but he just wasn't getting the borderline calls. And Kazmir didn't look like he intended to be in the zone from the get-go, and got every single borderline pitch called a strike. That pitch that Bobby Abreu drilled to right was the perfect example of a pitch Ben Sheets felt he needed to throw because 1) he didn't get the calls and 2) Kouzmanoff botched his throw. And that was the difference in the game right there.

Look, Ben Sheets will be the first guy to say that bar none, the pitch he threw to Bobby Abreu 2-0 was a mistake, and that anything that happened before that shouldn't have mattered. But the difference between a 1-1 and 2-0 count is huge. The difference between 2-1 and 1-2 is huge. Those differences made a huge impact on the game, and were made capriciously by the home plate umpire as if they were trivial. A team expects a level playing field, and a level playing field it was not.